It was mentioned by then-PM Robert Menzies back in the ’60s. It’s bubbled its way to the surface of social discourse from time to time since then, and was the subject of a 2017 Quarterly Essay, Without America.
However, this week, the Australian zeitgeist is once again doing the psychological floor routine inspired by the question: Is it time for Australia to have its own nukes?
The discussion has been stirred up following comments made by former defence strategist and security analyst Hugh White in his new book, How to Defend Australia.
While White stops short of insinuating an immediate need for Australia to develop nuclear capabilities, he poses a hypothetical in which Australia may need to become a more defended and independent force in the Asia region.
In How To Defend Australia, White mulls over the notion that the uncompromising protection of the US Army that Australia has enjoyed since the Cold War could be coming to an end, with Washington opting to lesson it’s influence in the region, allowing China to emerge as the dominate power in Asia.
White argues the need for more defensive weapons including SLBMs or Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles
“It’s made perfect sense for Australia not to contemplate nuclear weapons for the last 40 years because we’ve enjoyed a very high level of confidence in the American nuclear umbrella,” White explains, “but America provided that umbrella because it secured its position as the primary power in Asia.
“If the chances of [maintaining] that position are much lower, then our circumstances will be very different.
“We have to ask ourselves, can we defend ourselves against a power like China?”
To be clear, China has shown no signs of aggression, nor has our partnership with the US showing any cracks. In fact, Washington remains adamant that they plan to keep a strong presence in the area. White’s argument is a ‘big picture’ concept, given it would take potentially decades and billions of dollars to establish.
Indeed, White, a professor in strategic studies at the Australian National University has suggested spending 2% to 3.5% of our GDP on defence, or $30 billion to achieve a satisfactory level of defence.
One big hurdle for any nuclear development in Australia is our signature on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, other countries who have also signed the treaty, including Germany, South Korea and Japan have also begun to pose the question of nuclear armament.
The notion has been met with animated discussion, as people fall on both sides. The idea of an independent and an impenetrable Australia is interesting but, when you consider that already in the world there are 44 nuclear weapons missing or unaccounted for, more nukes may not be the answer.
How to Defend Australia is out today.
