Listen, we know it’s hard to get excited about the Academy Awards – we love ‘em here at the BRAG, and even we’re willing to admit they’re nothing more than a glitzy, hollow spectacle designed so an overpaid, overvalued industry can spend two hours patting itself on the back.
But even if award ceremonies don’t get you going, chances are good movies do, and this year, in a tradition-breaking trend, almost all of the major awards are set to be taken out by extraordinary, worthy pieces of art. There’s not a La La Land or a Shakespeare In Love in sight: the members of the Academy seem to have finally managed to pull themselves up by the bootstraps, and have handed out nods to only the most worthy of art (Darkest Hour and The Post nonwithstanding.)
So, ahead of the 90th Academy Awards, here are our personal picks for what should win, what will win, and nods to all the films and creatives we thought should have been nominated but weren’t, broken down by category. Enjoy!
Best Original Score
Nominees: Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk, Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread, Alexandre Desplat for The Shape Of Water, John Williams for Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Carter Burwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
In many ways, 2018 seems to be the year the Academy has decided to make up for past transgressions: most notably, they have finally honoured Jonny Greenwood with a nod, showering the Paul Thomas Anderson-collaborator with the acclaim he should have got for his magnificent work on There Will Be Blood.
Not that I think Greenwood is very likely to win, although I wish he was: his sumptuous work on Phantom Thread is slightly too subtle for voters. The oft-nominated John Williams doesn’t stand a chance for his work on Star Wars either; nor does Burwell, whose gentle score for Three Billboards was overwhelmed by that film’s noisy script, and big, Academy-baiting performances. Nope, this one is a relative lock for Alexandre Desplat, whose work on The Shape Of Water is exactly what the Academy love – colourful, insistent, and charming.
Will Win: Desplat
Should Win: Greenwood
Wish You Were Here: Benjamin Wallfisch for his experimental, bizarre work on It
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Best Foreign Language Film Nominees: A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless, On Body And Soul, The Square
It’s a real blessing that the overhyped and soupy In The Fade, which picked up the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Film, wasn’t even nominated here, leaving room for subtler, more unusual work like A Fantastic Woman from Chile, and Russia’s extraordinary Loveless. Out with the melodramatic garbage, and in with the films time will be genuinely kind to, I say.
For my money, the best films nominated are Ruben Ostlund’s viciously comic The Square, a perfect marriage of dark comedy and genuine pathos, and Loveless, a tragedy about a missing child and a broken marriage. But who knows which way the Academy is going to go? The Best Foreign Language Film category is always a bit of a dark horse race – it’s always possible the Academy will spurn the more heavily awarded films, and give the gong to an outlier like the so-so On Body And Soul.
In fact, that film probably has the best chance of all those nominated: it’s performance-centred, which the Academy loves; it flirts with difficult ideas without ever fully tackling them, which the Academy loves; and it’s nice to look at in a postcard-y kinda way, which the Academy goes fucking ga-ga for.
Will Win: On Body And Soul
Should Win: The Square/Loveless
Wish you were here: Julia Ducournau’s shocking and transgressive Raw
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Best Original Screenplay Nominees: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape Of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For whatever reason, the Original Screenplay Oscar is almost always a lock months ahead of the ceremony: last year, it was obvious that Kenneth Lonergan was going to scoop up the award for his gently tragic Manchester By The Sea, and this year, there’s no way that Martin McDonagh isn’t going to go home with the trophy for writing Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Which is fine by me. Three Billboards has gotten a lot of hate for supposedly redeeming a racist, but I think its moral code is a lot more subtle than that: the whole point is that Dixon, the deviant cop, doesn’t actually address the rage and hatred that led to his racism by the film’s end; he merely finds a societally-approved outlet for it. McDonagh isn’t championing the man: he’s using him to make a viciously biting point about the hate we as a society condemn, and the hate that we cherish as valuable.
And that’s not even mention the kind of karmic resetting of the status quo that McDonagh’s win would represent: the man should have picked up the award years ago for his superb In Bruges.
Will Win: Three Billboards
Should Win: Three Billboards
Wish You Were Here: Hope Dickson Leach for her underrated, heartbreaking The Levelling script
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Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound
This… is a weird one, particularly given two of the scripts in this category are creative charlatans, resolutely undeserving of the nod. Logan was an ugly, unpleasant film that fell victim to every single superhero movie cliché, topped off by one of the most hammily-written evil villain monologues in recent memory; and Mudbound was an ugly, turgid mess, one of the most bizarrely-praised American films of the last decade.
Elsewhere, Molly’s Game was good but forgettable, and Aaron Sorkin’s nod seems to have been handed out almost like a reflex: the Academy can’t help but honour the guy. And The Disaster Artist, although enjoyable, wasn’t exactly groundbreaking either in writing or execution – it could easily have been one more straight-to-video Franco experiment.
So yeah, like I say: weird.
Will Win: Who bloody knows. Maybe Sorkin?
Should Win: Call Me By Your Name, I guess.
Wish You Were Here: Chase Palmer, Cary Fukunaga and Gary Dauberman for It
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Best Supporting Actress Nominees: Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird, Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread, Octavia Spencer for The Shape Of Water, Allison Janney for I, Tonya and Mary J. Blige for Mudbound
Historically, the Best Supporting Actress category has been reserved for screen mums, and 2018 has followed this trend with a vengeance: both Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney have received nods for their turns as screen matriarchs. Of course, their characters couldn’t be more different: in Lady Bird, Metcalf is the picture of perseverance and kindness, whereas Janney plays a helicopter parent with rocket launchers mounted to her sides; an abusive, vicious bully.
Both nail their parts – which doesn’t change the fact they’re both fairly unlikely to win. No, this award belongs – deservedly – to Lesley Manville, whose performance in Phantom Thread as the vinegar-laced Cyril calls to mind Nick Cave’s lines about a ten ton catastrophe on a 60 pound chain. The film would fall apart without Manville’s work, and although Phantom Thread is unlikely (tragically) to pick up many gongs, it’s got this one in the bag.
Will Win: Manville
Should Win: Manville
Wish You Were Here: Sylvia Hoeks, for her film-stealing turn as Luv in Blade Runner 2049
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Best Supporting Actor Nominees: Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project, Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards, Richard Jenkins for The Shape Of Water, Christopher Plummer for All The Money In The World, Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards
It’s kind of baffling the way awards frontrunners can change at the drop of a hat. A little while ago, the Best Supporting Actor gong seemed destined to end up in the hands of Willem Dafoe, whose turn as a beacon of light made corporeal in The Florida Project proved to be a career-standout from an actor who has only turned in career-standouts.
But now Dafoe is a dark horse, pushed out of the race by Sam Rockwell, with the latter actor picking up pretty much every award available to him for his turn in Three Billboards. Which, look, I’m not really complaining about – Rockwell is one of his generation’s finest performers, and that he’s getting all this good press is no bad thing. But there was such nuance to Dafoe’s turn – such empathy, and light, and goodness – that it’s a genuine tragedy he’s not going to get suitably rewarded.
Will Win: Rockwell
Should Win: Dafoe
Wish You Were Here: Javier Bardem as probably the devil in mother!
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Best Actress Nominees: Sally Hawkins for The Shape Of Water, Francis McDormand for Three Billboards, Margot Robbie for I, Tonya, Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird, Meryl Streep for The Post
McDormand is going to pick this one up, and that’s fine – Sally Hawkins was far, far better in Shape, but who can begrudge a titan like McDormand?
What is significantly less fine, mind you, is the inclusion of Meryl Streep for The Post and the exclusion of Vicky Krieps for Phantom Thread. Streep is a hack, and in The Post she’s never been hackier, whereas Krieps was the heart and soul of the deservedly much-nominated Phantom. To give the latter film a Best Picture nod and to exclude the actor who made it the picture that it is may genuinely be unforgivable.
Will Win: McDormand
Should Win: Hawkins
Wish You Were Here: Krieps
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Best Actor Nominees: Timothee Chalamet for Call Me By Your Name, Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread, Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out, Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq
There is no way Oldman doesn’t have this one in the bag. Sure, he did much better work in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, and sure, Darkest Hour is a turkey, but he: A) plays a famous person, and B) does a lot of shouting, and the Academy loves to conflate both of those things with good acting.
It’s a shame though, given this one really should be going home with Day-Lewis, or Kaluuya, who anchored Get Out’s frequent tonal shifts with the aplomb of a genuine craftsman.
Oh, and by the way: what the fuck is Denzel Washington doing here? I mean, I love Denzel, but it makes no sense. Roman is an ugly, unflattering mess that no-one walks away from with their dignity intact.
Will Win: Oldman
Should Win: Day-Lewis
Wish You Were Here: Thomas Jane, for his inspired work in 1922
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Best Director Nominees: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, Jordan Peele for Get Out, Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, Guillermo del Toro for The Shape Of Water
Look at this beautiful fucking category. Two of the finest filmmakers currently working, PTA and Guillermo, are both up for the directing gong, staring down tough competition from two of the most exciting filmmakers that have recently emerged, Peele and Gerwig.
Any one of the nominees could pick up this award and I’d be over the moon, but my personal preference is for del Toro, who has spent his career generating pure empathy for creatures most filmmakers flinch away from.
That said, my hunch is this one belongs to Nolan: his is the most traditional filmmaker on the list, and the Academy might see this one as a pay-back Oscar for not nominating his work on The Dark Knight.
Will Win: Nolan
Should Win: del Toro
Wish You Were Here: Denis Villeneuve for Blade Runner 2049
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Best Picture Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape Of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s disgusting that The Post and Darkest Hour, two of the worst films of the season, have somehow scored themselves Oscar nods, and even more so given that they have in the process edged out better fare like The Florida Project.
Oh well. At least neither will win. There’s two ways Best Picture will go: the traditional route, with Three Billboards taking out the top gong, or the upset, with the significantly less ordinary The Shape Of Water beating out the competition.
Personally, I’d love to see the latter scenario go down: The Shape Of Water is one of the most beautifully-realised, important genre films of the decade; a masterpiece like no other. Also, how great would it be for the film world’s top award to be taken out by a movie that features extensive discussion about fish-man penises?
Will Win: The Shape Of Water (fingers crossed)
Should Win: The Shape Of Water
Wish You Were Here: The Florida Project
The 90th Academy Awards will premiere on Monday March 5, Australian time.
